BLOG da Análise Técnica: 2012

U.S. stock futures retreated, following last week's decline, on concern a meeting of European leaders will fail to help contain the region's debt crisis.

Bank of America Corp., Caterpillar (CAT) Inc. and Alcoa Inc. (AA) slipped more than 1.2 percent to pace losses among the largest companies. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) dropped more than 3.1 percent as they failed to gain approval of their top experimental drug, the blood thinner Eliquis, from U.S. regulators who said they needed more data on the treatment.

Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in September slid 0.9 percent to 1,314.50 at 8:46 a.m. New York time, after snapping a two-week rally on June 22. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures declined 97 points, or 0.8 percent, to 12,471.

Billionaire investor George Soros called on Europe to start a fund to buy Italian and Spanish bonds, warning that a failure by leaders meeting on June 28 to produce drastic measures could spell the demise of the currency. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a June 15 speech that she opposed "premature" proposals for issuing euro-area bonds. Spain formally requested a bailout for its banks as it negotiated details of the aid.

"With Germany just not giving in to the requests for largess that the rest of Europe wants them to disperse in the form of socializing debt obligations in the euro region, nothing of substance will come out of the summit," Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York, wrote today. "Markets today are realizing that."

In the U.S., data may show that demand for new homes probably rose in May for the second month as mortgage rates dropped, bolstering the residential real-estate market while other parts of the economy cool, economists predicted.

Economic Concern

Signs of slower U.S. growth and concern over Europe's debt crisis pushed stocks lower last week. The S&P 500 has fallen 5.9 percent from an almost four-year high in April.

Financial companies retreated as a measure of European lenders lost 1.8 percent. Bank of America dropped 1.9 percent to $7.79. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) decreased 1.2 percent to $35.56.

Companies that are most-dependent on the pace of economic growth also declined. Caterpillar, the world's largest maker of construction equipment, fell 1.2 percent to $83.93. Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, slid 1.6 percent to $8.48.

Pfizer dropped 3.1 percent to $22.03, while Bristol-Myers sank 4.6 percent to $33.75. The Food and Drug Administration wants clarification of information from already completed trials, and isn't seeking new studies, the companies said in a statement. Eliquis, targeted for patients with a type of heart arrhythmia, would have $2.5 billion a year in sales by 2015 if approved, said Tim Anderson, a Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst.

Facebook Drops

Facebook Inc. (FB), the biggest social-networking operator, decreased 1.5 percent to $32.57. The decline followed a 22 percent advance over the previous two weeks.

Europe's debt crisis is putting pressure on corporate earnings globally with companies from Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) to Danone (BN) cutting forecasts and signaling profits will fall at more companies this year.

Analysts predict members of the S&P 500 in the U.S. will report a 1.1 percent average drop in second-quarter earnings, after estimating a gain as recently as last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That would be the first decline in 11 quarters after a 6.2 percent average increase in the first quarter. A stronger dollar is another threat to earnings as U.S. exports become more expensive.

In Asia, the chairman at computer manufacturer Compal Electronics Inc. said last week that concern about a global slowdown is making him less optimistic about the second half of the year. Paris-based Danone lowered its 2012 profitability forecast as Spanish shoppers switch to cheaper brands of yogurt.

'Very Unlikely'

"There is a lot of trepidation about second-quarter earnings," Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York, said in a June 22 interview. He oversees about $2 billion including shares of Apple Inc. and DuPont Co. "You are very unlikely to see companies coming out with favorable outlooks given the problems in Europe and the slowing growth in the U.S. and China."

At a time of record fuel demand, bountiful oil and natural gas, and expanding economies, no stocks are doing worse in the world than energy producers from BP Plc to Hess Corp.

The MSCI World Energy Index (MXWO) has declined 9.6 percent this year, more than any other group, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gauge has climbed 45 percent since equities bottomed in 2009, less than any industry with earnings tied to economic growth. In the U.S., the stocks are at the cheapest levels relative to the Standard & Poor's 500 Index since 2009.

Bears vs. Bulls

The divergence reflects the transformation of an industry where growing consumption of energy has been met with even bigger gains in supply. U.S. crude inventories are the highest since 1990 and natural gas prices have lost 38 percent in 12 months amid a glut spurred by hydraulic fracturing. Bears say energy producers, making up about 10 percent of global stocks, will keep equities from advancing. Bulls say the market will rally when their shares rebound.

"The S&P 500 (SPX) will have a tough time making meaningful progress until the energy sector bottoms and begins to move higher," Jim Russell, the Cincinnati-based chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which oversees about $116 billion, said in a phone interview on June 20. "Even though the valuations of the stocks are cheap, the fundamentals have not yet bottomed."

To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net

Marcelo T. Teixeira

Founder & CEO

European Stock Fall Before Summit As Soros Warns on Euro

European Stock Futures Decline Before Leaders' Summit

European stocks declined for a third day as European Union leaders prepare for this week's summit in Brussels. U.S. index futures and Asian shares retreated.

BHP Billiton Ltd. (BLT) lost 0.9 percent and Rio Tinto Plc dropped 1.5 percent as UBS AG cut its profit outlook for the mining companies. Shire Plc slid 10 percent after regulators approved a submission from a rival to copy its hyperactivity medicine. Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (ABI) rose 0.6 percent after the company was said to be close to buying the remainder of Mexico's Grupo Modelo SAB.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) fell 0.4 percent to 245.6 at 8:06 a.m. in London. The gauge fell at the end of last week after German business confidence slid to two-year low, adding to concern that Europe's debt crisis is derailing growth. The measure is down 9.9 percent from its high in March. It has still gained 0.4 percent so far this year. Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures slid 0.6 percent today, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) also dropped 0.6 percent.

"This week's crucial potential market moving development from the euro zone in the shape of the two-day summit does not begin until Thursday," Ian Williams, a strategist at Peel Hunt LLP in London wrote in a note to clients. "It may make for some nervous trading in the next couple of days."

Germany will confront an increasingly united bloc of euro- area nations demanding more ambitious policies to save the currency union this week. Leaders will attend pre-summit meetings as they work to narrow differences before the June 28- 29 gathering.

Soros Call

Billionaire investor George Soros called on Europe to start a fund to buy Italian and Spanish bonds, warning that a failure by leaders this week to produce drastic measures could spell the demise of the currency.

France and Italy are urging Germany to take decisive action to end the 2 1/2-year-old debt crisis after Spain's 10-year bond yields jumped to more than 7 percent last week, a level that economists consider unsustainable.

"There is a disagreement on the fiscal side," Soros, 81, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. "Unless that is resolved in the next three days, then I am afraid the summit could turn out to be a fiasco. That could actually be fatal."

The Bank for International Settlements said in its annual report released yesterday that central banks are facing the limit of their ability to boost economic growth.

Central banks are being "cornered into prolonging monetary stimulus," the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS said. "Both conventionally and unconventionally, accommodative monetary policies are palliatives and have their limits."

U.S. Data

U.S. data today may show demand for new homes increased in May for a second month as mortgage rates fell. Sales climbed to a 346,000 annual rate, up 0.9 percent from 343,000 in April, according to the median economist forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

BHP fell 0.9 percent to 1,753.5 pence and Rio Tinto Group (RIO) slid 1.5 percent to 2,938 pence as UBS downgraded earnings estimates for both companies by 4 percent due to Australia's mining and carbon taxes.

SABMiller Plc slid 1.7 percent to 2,462 pence after Liberum Capital downgraded the shares to sell, citing the increased possibility that InBev will buy Modelo.

Shire lost 10 percent to 1,767 pence after U.S. regulators approved a submission from Actavis, a generic drugmaker aiming to copy Shire's Adderall XR drug. Shire said in a statement it continues to expect to deliver good full-year 2012 earnings growth and to "remain competitive in the Adderall XR marketplace."

InBev Deal

InBev added 0.6 percent to 55.95 euros. The world's biggest brewer is close to buying the remainder of Mexico's Modelo for more than $12 billion, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

The purchase may be announced as soon as this week, said the person, who asked not to be identified as the discussions are confidential. The deal isn't completed and may still fall through, the person said.

Aer Lingus Group Plc gained 1.1 percent to 1.08 euros after the Sunday Business Post reported that Turk Hava Yollari AO, or Turkish Airlines, may bid for the Irish government's 25 percent stake in the airline or make a joint offer with another carrier.

An external spokeswoman for Aer Lingus, who asked not to be named, declined to comment. A Transport Ministry spokesman didn't immediately respond to a text message requesting comment.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah Jones in London at sjones35@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew Rummer at arummer@bloomberg.net

Marcelo T. Teixeira

Founder & CEO - StartupMover

marcelo@startupmover.com

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