Artigo: "U.S. Treasuries Drop After Private Report Shows June Job Growth of 368,000"

O mercado americano, hoje está sendo fortemente impactado, pela divulgação do relatório da ADP EMPLOYER SERVICES. A ADP é uma consultoria econômica focada em serviços de previsão sobre o mercado de trabalho americano. Estatísticas anteriores apontam um alto grau de acerto de suas previsões. A previsão divulgada no dia de hoje, aponta um crescimento de 368.000 novas vagas no mercado de trabalho americano, número muito superior ao esperado pela maioria do mercado. Se a ADP acertar novamente, isso indicará que a economia americana continua aquecida. Podendo, dessa forma, suscitar novos aumentos na taxa de juros americana. Agora, se o próximo relatório de emprego indicar um número abaixo desse esperado, poderemos ter uma reversão desse "susto" de hoje.

Forte abraço,

Marcelo Faro

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U.S. Treasuries Drop After Private Report Shows June Job Growth of 368,000

July 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10-year Treasuries fell the most in three weeks after a private report estimated U.S. companies last month added the most jobs since at least 2001, fueling speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again.

The report comes two days before the government's employment report for June, among the releases most closely watched by bond investors as an indication of the economy's strength. Futures traders added to bets the Fed will lift the overnight lending rate between banks after ADP Employer Services said companies added 368,000 jobs.

``Getting a strong employment report like this is going to cause some nervousness in the market and selling of bonds,'' said Paul Horrmann, a broker and Treasury market strategist at ICAP Plc in Jersey City, New Jersey, the world's biggest inter-dealer broker. ``It's some more evidence the employment picture is little more rosy.''

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose 9 basis points, the most since June 14, to 5.24 percent at 10:19 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. Bond yields move inversely to prices. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

The price of the 5 1/8 percent note due in May 2016 fell 11/16, or $6.88 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 1/8, the biggest drop since June 14. The benchmark 30-year bond fell more than 1 point.

The Labor Department report, which also covers government jobs, is forecast to show job creation rebounded to 158,000 from 75,000 in May, a seven-month low.

Factory Orders Rise

Treasuries extended their drop after a Commerce Department report showed factory orders rose 0.7 percent in May following a revised 2 percent drop in the prior month. Orders were expected to rise 0.1 percent, according to the median forecast of 60 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

U.S. financial markets were closed yesterday for the Independence Day holiday. Benchmark 10-year notes erased earlier gains, which came after North Korea test-fired at least seven missiles over the Sea of Japan, ignoring warnings from the U.S., China, Japan, South Korea and Russia.

The increase in jobs was the largest since ADP began keeping records in January 2001. The monthly report is based on a sampling of 225,000 businesses with about 14 million workers on payrolls. The company says there is a 90 percent correlation between its data and the Labor Department's monthly private employment figures.

``The market expects the Fed will respond more to this,'' said Graig Fantuzzi, a Treasury trader at Morgan Stanley in New York. ``The Fed is in a data-dependent stage and is concerned about resource constraints on the economy.''

Traders increased bets the Fed will lift the benchmark rate for an 18th straight time when it meets next month, to 5.5 percent. The chances the bank will add another quarter-point is about 74 percent, according to futures markets.

Inflation Concern

Treasuries dropped July 3 after a report showed prices paid by manufacturers rose more than economists forecast last month. The notes had their biggest two-day rally since the start of June last week after the Fed said ``incoming information'' would determine whether further rate increases are needed to keep inflation in check.

The Institute for Supply Management may say tomorrow its index of non-manufacturing businesses, including banks, builders, real-estate agents and retailers, was 59 in June from 60.1 the month before, according to the median estimate of 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Readings greater than 50 signal expansion.

Declines in Treasuries may be limited because previous ADP reports have estimated more private employment gains than the Labor Department subsequently documented. ADP estimated 122,000 new private-sector jobs for May, while the government counted 67,000. For February, ADP estimated 342,000 new jobs, and the government tally was 168,000.

``The history of this number being a good leading indicator is shaky at best,'' Andy Brenner, head of global fixed income at Hapoalim Securities in New York, wrote in an e-mail to clients.

North Korea

The 10-year note yield fell 1 basis point in Asian trading as concern about security in the region spurred investors to seek the safety of debt.

Treasuries are considered low risk due to their regular fixed payments and lower chance of default because of their top credit rating and payment guarantees.

The North Korean tests included the failed launch of a long- range missile that vanished after 40 seconds, White House National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley said in Washington. The tests are ``provocative behavior,'' he said.

``It's causing a little bit of a ripple in the market,'' said Grant Hassell, who helps manage $2.2 billion of debt at AMP Capital Investors in Wellington, New Zealand.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net;
Michael McDonald in New York at
mmcdonald10@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: July 5, 2006 10:22 EDT